Oscar Predictions: 2004 (Top 8: 100%; Overall: 71%)
The 77th Annual Academy Awards are Feb. 27, and after going 96% last year, I hesitate to even try to predict this year's outcomes. No way am I gonna top myself. But here goes my annual college try:
BEST PICTURE |
| In the Race: |
The Aviator
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways |
| No Chance: |
Finding Neverland
Ray |
| Nominee I'd Vote For: |
Million Dollar Baby |
| What's Missing: |
Before Sunset
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Kinsey |
| After the Lord of the Rings lock last year, it's nice to have a competitive Best Pic race back in action. Two of these five contenders have a major shot, and we have one conceivable dark horse that could eke out a win. The Aviator is the conventional frontrunner, as it 1) leads in nominations with 11, 2) is from legendary Oscar-owed director Martin Scorsese, 3) is partially from win machine Miramax, and 4) is the only sweeping epic nominated. All of those are good reasons why it will win--the only thing holding it back is that current buzz seems to indicate that Hollywoodites got more emotionally involved with what some are saying is just a flat-out better movie: Clint Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby . Critical darling Sideways took a surprise Best Ensemble win at the SAGs, and the film does have its admirers. Star Paul Giamatti's snub, however unfair, is troubling to the film's Best Picture chances. I don't see Miramax's other nominee, Finding Neverland, as being taken seriously enough to have a shot, and Ray will gets its major recognition elsewhere. I say M$B , but it won't be a TKO. [RIGHT!] |
| The Prediction: |
Million Dollar Baby |
BEST DIRECTOR |
| In the Race: |
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby |
| No Chance: |
Taylor Hackford, Ray
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Mike Leigh, Vera Drake |
| Nominee I'd Vote For: |
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby |
| Who's Missing: |
Richard Linklater, Before Sunset
Mike Nichols, Closer
Michael Mann, Collateral |
| Such a clear race between Scorsese and Eastwood that Hackford, Payne, and Leigh might as well go out for a smoke when this category is announced. This is Scorsese's sixth overall nomination without a win, and his only chance to win for The Aviator , as he is not amongthe producers or writers on the film. So if the Academy has decided it's finally Marty's year, this is the only category they can use. And then there's 1992 winner Clint, already a DGA winner for Million Dollar Baby . Already a Golden Globe winner for Million Dollar Baby . Beloved by Hollywood, whereas Scorsese's beloved by NYC. If sentiment didn't do the trick for Scorsese in 2002 with Gangs of New York , I'm wondering if there's any reason to think he's a lock this time around. I'm sayin' indeed that Scorsese loses to an actor-director for the third time, and this time it's to a boxing movie! (Oh, the irony...) [RIGHT!] |
| The Prediction: |
Clint Eastwood |
BEST ACTOR |
| In the Race: |
Jamie Foxx, Ray |
| No Chance: |
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby |
| Nominee I'd Vote For: |
Jamie Foxx, Ray |
| Who's Missing: |
Paul Giamatti, Sideways
Liam Neeson, Kinsey |
| I've heard all the theories about how Ray 's Jamie Foxx could lose this by splitting votes due to his supporting nod, but IT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN! Clint, whose Million Dollar Baby nomination didn't come to me as the surprise it did to some, has better chances in the directing category. Finding Neverland 's Depp had a better shot last year, and The Aviator 's DiCaprio is noteworthy as being one of the few leads in an epic Best Picture biography that has no chance of winning Best Actor. Hotel Rwanda 's Cheadle gets his long-overdue first nod, but it's Foxx who becomes the seventh African-American to win an acting Oscar and--ahem--the first Oscar winner from In Living Color . Sorry, Jim Carrey. [RIGHT!] |
| The Prediction: |
Jamie Foxx |
BEST ACTRESS |
| In the Race: |
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Hilary Swank, M illion Dollar Baby |
| No Chance: |
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Kate Winslet,
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind |
| Nominee I'd Vote For: |
Hilary Swank, M illion Dollar Baby |
| Who's Missing: |
Julie Delpy, Before Sunset |
| Yes, it's a rematch of 1999's Annette Bening vs. Hilary Swank contest. And yes, Being Julia's Bening is overdue for a win. And yes, Million Dollar Baby's Swank is probably going to bet her again. This is a contest in which I found everyone pretty worthy without one performance obviously superior to the others. I do question this, though: if the Academy were truly interested in granting wins solely based on who's owed, they'd have to cough up an Oscar for Winslet (0-4) before Bening (0-3). Only in the twisted logic of the Academy does that make Bening the most slighted one among this quintet. In the great Annette/Hilary battle, only Vera Drake's Imelda Staunton has an outside shot to win if votes split. But don't bet on it. [RIGHT!] |
| The Prediction: |
Hilary Swank |
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR |
| In the Race: |
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Clive Owen, Closer |
| No Chance: |
Alan Alda, The Aviator
Jamie Foxx, Collateral |
| Nominee I'd Vote For: |
Clive Owen, Closer |
| Who's Missing: |
Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland
Liev Schreiber, The Manchurian Candidate |
| Jamie Foxx is out because he'll be rewarded in the lead category. Alan Alda is out because he is so marginalized in the movie. The three-way race that remains breaks down like this: Clive Owen's is the most substantial role, but the hardest to swallow content-wise. Thomas Haden Church's role is the funniest, but his resume as an actor will, I'm afraid, render him a lightweight. And Morgan Freeman's role is the most likeable, and the actor himself is now on nomination No. 4 without a win. That tears it. [RIGHT!] |
| The Prediction: |
Morgan Freeman |
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS |
| In the Race: |
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Natalie Portman, Closer |
| No Chance: |
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda |
| Nominee I'd Vote For: |
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator |
| Who's Missing: |
Daryl Hannah, Kill Bill Vol. 2
Sharon Warren, Ray |
| Madsen has one great, virtuoso scene in Sideways . Is that enough? Plenty of women have won this award with just one big scene. Natalie Portman has a number of big scenes in Closer , but the film itself was not loved by the Academy overall. Laura Linney is clearly an also-ran as she scored the only mention for the highly-snubbed Kinsey . Okonedo's mild surprise nomination is her reward. I say strike this one for Cate as Kate in The Aviator. [RIGHT!] |
| The Prediction: |
Cate Blanchett |
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY |
| In the Race: |
The Aviator
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
The Incredibles |
| No Chance: |
Hotel Rwanda
Vera Drake |
| Nominee I'd Vote For: |
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind |
| What's Missing: |
Kill Bill Vol. 2
Kinsey |
| After losing for Being John Malkovich and Adaptation , maverick screenwriter Charlie Kaufman looks to finally take home an Oscar. The Incredibles has a long shot chance, and you can't count out Best Picture nominees in this category, so The Aviator is still in it. No way for the other two. [RIGHT!] |
| The Prediction: |
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind |
BEST SCREENPLAY ADAPTATION |
| In the Race: |
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways |
| No Chance: |
Before Sunset
Finding Neverland
The Motorcycle Diaries |
| Nominee I'd Vote For: |
Before Sunset |
| What's Missing: |
Closer |
| The one award Sideways probably has locked up. Only Million Dollar Baby could serve as a potential spoiler, and that's only if the movie completely sweeps; otherwise, the writing awards once again serve as consolation prizes. [RIGHT!] |
| The Prediction: |
Sideways |
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE |
| In the Race: |
The Incredibles
Shrek 2 |
| No Chance: |
Shark Tale |
| Nominee I'd Vote For: |
Shrek 2 |
| What's Missing: |
The Polar Express |
| It's Disney vs. DreamWorks again as The Incredibles takes on Shrek 2 . The latter had the biggest box office ever for an animated movie, but the former had the better reviews and the more recent release, so I'd give The Incredibles the leg up. [RIGHT!] |
| The Prediction: |
The Incredibles |
And here are my predictions in this year's other categories:
Best Cinematography: |
The Aviator
[RIGHT!] |
Best Original Score:
|
Finding Neverland
[RIGHT!] |
Best Original Song: |
"Learn to Be Lonely," The Phantom of the Opera
[WRONG!] |
Best Film Editing: |
The Aviator
[RIGHT!] |
Best Art Direction: |
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
[WRONG!] |
Best Sound: |
Ray
[RIGHT!] |
Best Costume Design: |
The Aviator
[RIGHT!] |
Best Visual Effects:
|
Spider-Man 2
[RIGHT!] |
Best Makeup: |
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
[RIGHT!] |
Best Sound Effects Editing:
|
Spider-Man 2
[WRONG!] |
Best Foreign Language Film:
|
The Sea Inside
[RIGHT!] |
Best Documentary Feature:
|
The Story of the Weeping Camel
[WRONG!] |
Best Documentary Short:
|
Sister Rose's Passion
[WRONG!] |
Best Live Action Short:
|
7:35 In the Morning
[WRONG!] |
Best Animated Short:
|
Gopher Broke
[WRONG!] |
|
