Oscar Predictions: 2003 (Top 8: 100%; Overall: 96% - woohoo!)
The 76th Annual Academy Awards are coming up on Feb. 29. Will this races many frontrunners each emerge victorious? As always, I'll give predicting the winners my best shot, as well as offer my wish list of who ought to be winning those little gold bald men.
BEST PICTURE |
| In the Race: |
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
| No Chance: |
Lost in Translation
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit |
| Nominee I'd Vote For: |
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
| What's Missing: |
Cold Mountain
In America
The School of Rock |
| I've heard a few people say that since The Lord of the Rings is not beloved by the actors' branch of the Academy, that it may lose the top prize to Mystic River. Wrong, wrong, wrong. The final installment in Peter Jackson's trilogy wins this one with Schindler's List -level obviousness. [RIGHT!] |
| The Prediction: |
The Lord of the Rings:
The Return of the King |
BEST DIRECTOR |
| In the Race: |
Peter Jackson,
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
| No Chance: |
Fernando Meirelles, City of God
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
Peter Weir, Master and Commander
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River |
| Nominee I'd Vote For: |
Peter Jackson,
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
| Who's Missing: |
Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain
Jim Sheridan, In America
Quentin Tarantino, Kill Bill Vol. 1 |
| An even easier call than Best Picture. Peter Jackson is the easy winner, collecting a cumulative prize for his work on all three Lord of the Rings films. Lost in Translation's Sofia Coppola, the first American woman ever nominated in this category, will win an Oscar, just not in this category. Mystic River's Clint Eastwood might have had a shot had he not won 11 years ago for Unforgiven. Six-time nominee Peter Weir will be a bridesmaid yet again. [RIGHT!] |
| The Prediction: |
Peter Jackson |
BEST ACTOR |
| In the Race: |
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Sean Penn, Mystic River |
| No Chance: |
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
Jude Law, Cold Mountain |
| Nominee I'd Vote For: |
Sean Penn, Mystic River |
| Who's Missing: |
Jack Black, The School of Rock
Paddy Considine, In America |
| The only true nail-biter of the biggest categories. Law is definitely out since Cold Mountain is not beloved by voters, and Kingsley's already a winner for 1982's Gandhi. Sean Penn looked like the frontrunner early-on, but a suddenly visible Bill Murray and a surprise SAG win for Johnny Depp make this a three-way race between a trio of actors who are all owed by the Academy. I'm sticking with Penn, though, because of these three owed-actors, he's the only one not an Oscar debutante--this is his fourth nod without a win. [RIGHT!] |
| The Prediction: |
Sean Penn |
BEST ACTRESS |
| In the Race: |
Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give
Charlize Theron, Monster |
| No Chance: |
Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider
Samantha Morton, In America
Naomi Watts, 21 Grams |
| Nominee I'd Vote For: |
Charlize Theron, Monster |
| Who's Missing: |
Nicole Kidman, Cold Mountain
Uma Thurman, Kill Bill Vol. 1 |
| All signs point to a win for Charlize Theron, who underwent a complete transformation in Monster. She deserves the prize, and could only be stopped by Keaton, whose film is much less unsettling and whose comeback performance is quite winning. Watts might have had more of a shot had 21 Grams caught on with audiences, and Morton's part is just too small for a leading award. 13-year-old Kiwi Keisha Castle-Hughes of Whale Rider most likely will not threaten Marlee Matlin's record of being the youngest Best Actress winner ever. [RIGHT!] |
| The Prediction: |
Charlize Theron |
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR |
| In the Race: |
Alec Baldwin, The Cooler
Tim Robbins, Mystic River |
| No Chance: |
Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams
Djimon Hounsou, In America
Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai |
| Nominee I'd Vote For: |
Tim Robbins, Mystic River |
| Who's Missing: |
Sean Astin, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Bill Nighy, Love Actually |
| As the only major recognition for The Last Samurai, Ken Watanabe is likely an also-ran here, as are Hounsou (smallish role in a box office disappointment) and Del Toro (a winner in this category just three years ago). Alec Baldwin, a fiery presence in the little-seen The Cooler has an outside shot, but Mystic River's Tim Robbins is excellent in this category's only Best Picture nominee and should cruise to an easy victory. [RIGHT!] |
| The Prediction: |
Tim Robbins |
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS |
| In the Race: |
Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog
Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April
Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain |
| No Chance: |
Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River
Holly Hunter, Thirteen |
| Nominee I'd Vote For: |
Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain |
| Who's Missing: |
Maria Bello, The Cooler
Emma Thompson, Love Actually |
| For months, Cold Mountain's Renee Zellweger has been pitched as Oscar 2003's surest bet. Then the Miramax film was snubbed in the Picture, Director, Actress, and Screenplay categories. Will the voters' general distate for the film keep the three-noms-in-a-row Zellweger in her seat on Oscar night? Probably not, but now the possibility is there, so I'm including Aghdashloo (Oscar's first Iranian acting nominee ever) and Clarkson (coming off a banner year) as possible spoilers. But I still doubt it. [RIGHT!] |
| The Prediction: |
Renee Zellweger |
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY |
| In the Race: |
In America
Lost in Translation |
| No Chance: |
The Barbarian Invasions
Dirty Pretty Things
Finding Nemo |
| Nominee I'd Vote For: |
In America |
| What's Missing: |
Kill Bill Vol. 1
Love Actually
The School of Rock |
| The majority of voters will not have even screened The Barbarian Invasions or Dirty Pretty Things, so they're out. They will all have seen Finding Nemo, but Oscar has yet to award a writing award to an animated film. In America's screenwriters and father and daughters chronicling their own real-life story, so there's sentiment there, but not as much as will be in play when Sofia Coppola, daughter of Francis and granddaughter of Carmine, becomes only the second third-generation Oscar winner in history for her screenplay of Lost in Translation. [RIGHT!] |
| The Prediction: |
Lost in Translation |
BEST SCREENPLAY ADAPTATION |
| In the Race: |
American Splendor
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Mystic River
Seabiscuit |
| No Chance: |
City of God |
| Nominee I'd Vote For: |
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
| What's Missing: |
Cold Mountain
House of Sand and Fog
Matchstick Men |
| The most competitive category of the night. Only the Brazilian import City of God seems to be out, as films in foreign languages rarely win outside of the foreign category. Art house hit American Splendor did win the Writers Guild award, but the Oscar is awarded by all voters across all branches, not just the writers. Seabiscuit's Gary Ross was denied a directing nomination, so this could serve as a consolation prize. Mystic River most closely fits the mold of past winners in this category, but voters could be looking to legitimize a Best Picture win for The Lord of the Rings by backing it up with a writing win. That's the way I'm leaning, at least today. [RIGHT!] |
| The Prediction: |
The Lord of the Rings:
The Return of the King |
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE |
| In the Race: |
Finding Nemo |
| No Chance: |
Brother Bear
The Triplets of Belleville |
| Nominee I'd Vote For: |
Finding Nemo |
| What's Missing: |
none |
| Finding Nemo looks to supply Pixar with its first feature animation award. [RIGHT!] |
| The Prediction: |
Finding Nemo |
And here are my predictions in this year's other categories:
Best Cinematography: |
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World [RIGHT!] |
Best Original Score:
|
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King [RIGHT!] |
Best Original Song: |
"Into the West,"
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King [RIGHT!] |
Best Film Editing: |
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King [RIGHT!] |
Best Art Direction: |
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King [RIGHT!] |
Best Sound: |
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King [RIGHT!] |
Best Costume Design: |
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King [RIGHT!] |
Best Visual Effects:
|
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King [RIGHT!] |
Best Makeup: |
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King [RIGHT!] |
Best Sound Effects Editing:
|
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World [RIGHT!] |
Best Foreign Language Film:
|
The Barbarian Invasions [RIGHT!] |
Best Documentary Feature:
|
The Fog of War [RIGHT!] |
Best Documentary Short:
|
Chernobyl Heart [RIGHT!] |
Best Live Action Short:
|
Two Soldiers [RIGHT!] |
Best Animated Short:
|
Boundin' [WRONG!] |
|
