Oscar Predictions: 2002 (Top 8: 38%; Overall: 52%) AWFUL!!!

The 75th Annual Academy Awards are just days away, and what looked like one of these easiest sets of races to call in recent memory has since evolved into a much hazier contest. Still, I'll give predicting the winners my best shot, as well as offer my wish list of who ought to be winning those Golden Guys on March 23rd.

BEST PICTURE
In the Race:	Chicago
No Chance:	Gangs of New York The Hours The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers The Pianist
Nominee I'd Vote For:	The Pianist
What's Missing:	About a Boy About Schmidt Far From Heaven Minority Report Talk to Her
Oddly, the Academy's top award is the only major category that is an absolute lock—there's simply not going to be any beating of Chicago for Best Picture. A win for the Miramax flagship, up for a leading 13 awards, will officially cement the return of the musical and become the first member of the genre to win Best Picture in 34 years. None of the other nominees seems to have a prayer of scoring an upset, making this year's race perhaps the first since 1993 (Schindler's List) to be so open-and-shut. [RIGHT!]
The Prediction:	Chicago

BEST DIRECTOR
In the Race:	Rob Marshall, Chicago Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York
No Chance:	Stephen Daldry, The Hours Roman Polanski, The Pianist Pedro Almodovar, Talk to Her
Nominee I'd Vote For:	Pedro Almodovar, Talk to Her
Who's Missing:	Todd Haynes, Far From Heaven Steven Spielberg, Minority Report
Daldry is out, as The Hours is considered far more a writer's piece than a director's. Almodovar's triumph will have to be just nabbing the nomination, as no foreign language film has ever nabbed this prize. The self-exiled Polanski, respected though he may be, is far too controversial to gain enough widespread support to finish first in the balloting. That leaves Marshall and Scorsese to duke it out. The latter, arguably considered America's greatest living filmmaker, has never won an Oscar despite four previous nominations and two specific losses (Raging Bull and GoodFellas) that many Oscar-watchers rank among the biggest crimes in the history of the awards. Combine that with the fact that he's being heavily promoted by Miramax and its chief Harvey Weinstein, who seems ready to forsake his first-born to get Scorsese his overdue Oscar. All that would seem to ensure Scorsese a win, but then Chicago's Marshall stunned everyone by winning the Directors Guild award, the most accurate predictor of Oscar success in any field. He's certainly helming a more popular film with Chicago, and its actors have been profusely praising him in their pre-Oscar victory speeches. I'm thinking their voices are ultimately going to drown out the cries for Scorsese. But if Scorsese does triumph, the Oscars will need to be officially renamed the Harveys. [WRONG!]
The Prediction:	Rob Marshall

BEST ACTOR
In the Race:	Adrien Brody, The Pianist Daniel Day Lewis, Gangs of New York Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt
No Chance:	Nicolas Cage, Adaptation Michael Caine, The Quiet American
Nominee I'd Vote For:	Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt
Who's Missing:	Hugh Grant, About a Boy Robin Williams, One Hour Photo
Caine may not have ever won before in the lead category, but voters are likely to consider his two previous supporting Oscars to be reward enough, especially considering that The Quiet American has not been widely seen. Cage, a winner here in 1995, is also apparently flying under the radar despite his turn in the usually award-magnet dual role in Adaptation. About Schmidt's Jack Nicholson, who with this nomination became the most nominated male actor in history, was the early frontrunner in this race, mainly because this performance is widely-viewed as his best in over a quarter century. Lately, though, momentum has been building for two other actors—The Pianist's Adrien Brody could sneak in as being the only actor nominated not to have one at least one Oscar already, and, more threateningly, Day-Lewis' showy work in Gangs of New York claimed him the SAG award—the last major award before the Oscars. Day-Lewis may have the most momentum going into the final days, but I'm sticking with Jack, for whom a win would tie Katharine Hepburn's record by earning Oscar No. 4. [WRONG!]
The Prediction:	Jack Nicholson

BEST ACTRESS
In the Race:	Nicole Kidman, The Hours Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven Renee Zellweger, Chicago
No Chance:	Salma Hayek, Frida Diane Lane, Unfaithful
Nominee I'd Vote For:	Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
Who's Missing:	Maggie Gyllenhaal, Secretary Meryl Streep, The Hours
Hayek's nomination is certainly her reward for struggling to get Frida to the screen. Lane has her fervent supporters, but it's too small a faction to convert her to the win column. Moore, the most deserving nominee, is stuck in a movie that's clearly unloved by the Academy and is probably doomed to a No. 3 finish. Kidman, all 20 minutes of her, seemed poised to win this category until Zellweger rode a Chicago wave to a SAG win. Since she's in the more beloved movie, I'm saying she'll keep riding the wave here and win. [WRONG!]
The Prediction:	Renee Zellweger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
In the Race:	Chris Cooper, Adaptation Ed Harris, The Hours Paul Newman, Road to Perdition Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can
No Chance:	John C. Reilly, Chicago
Nominee I'd Vote For:	John C. Reilly, Chicago
Who's Missing:	Dennis Haysbert, Far From Heaven Dennis Quaid, Far From Heaven
What's weird about this category is that I can't really see any significant factions of Academy voters getting all hot-and-bothered about any of these performances. That being the case, the award isn't so much going to the nominee with the most votes; it's instead going to the nominee who limps ahead of the other four. John C. Reilly's only strength is that he's the first performer since 1939 to appear in three of the year's Best Picture nominees. But his role is Chicago is pretty small, and Mr. Cellophane will probably be looked right through on the ballot. Previous winner Paul Newman has a shot, given that this is his first mention ever in this category, and he is the only true legend in this race. I would have previously counted out Walken, but then he surprised many by taking the SAG prize. Harris' screen time in The Hours is minimal, but this is his fourth nomination without a win. Despite all that, I look for the beatable frontrunner, Chris Cooper, to go ahead and limp toward the prize with a Mercedes Ruehl-style victory. [RIGHT!]
The Prediction:	Chris Cooper

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
In the Race:	Julianne Moore, The Hours Meryl Streep, Adaptation Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago
No Chance:	Kathy Bates, About Schmidt Queen Latifah, Chicago
Nominee I'd Vote For:	Meryl Streep, Adaptation
Who's Missing:	Toni Collette, About a Boy Bebe Neuwirth, Tadpole Amanda Peet, Changing Lanes
Bates and Latifah are totally out, and I'm only including Moore in the race since she does stand to siphon pity votes here since she actually deserves to win in the lead category but won't. What has always been a neck-and-neck race between Streep and Zeta-Jones seems to be more lopsided with each passing day: Mrs. Michael Douglas seems to now have this one in hand. [RIGHT!]
The Prediction:	Catherine Zeta-Jones

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
In the Race:	Far From Heaven My Big Fat Greek Wedding Talk to Her
No Chance:	Gangs of New York Y Tu Mama Tambien
Nominee I'd Vote For:	Talk to Her
What's Missing:	Frailty Punch-Drunk Love
How Gangs of New York, based on a novel, qualifies as an original screenplay is beyond me. How My Big Fat Greek Wedding, based on a stand-up routine, qualifies as an original screenplay is also beyond me. How My Big Fat Greek Wedding is going to beat the much more worthy Far From Heaven, Y Tu Mama Tambien, and especially Talk to Her, is WAY beyond me. But I'm afraid that's how it's gonna go, folks. [WRONG!]
The Prediction:	My Big Fat Greek Wedding

BEST SCREENPLAY ADAPTATION
In the Race:	Adaptation Chicago The Hours
No Chance:	About a Boy The Pianist
Nominee I'd Vote For:	About a Boy
What's Missing:	About Schmidt Minority Report
Adaptation is probably just too odd for most voters, and still others might wonder if its reworkings of Susan Orlean's "The Orchid Thief" don't stretch the limits of this category too far. About a Boy and The Pianist stand no chance, leaving Chicago and The Hours to duke it out. And since musicals rarely win for writing, score one consolation prize for The Hours. [WRONG!]
The Prediction:	The Hours

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
In the Race:	Ice Age Lilo & Stitch Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron Spirited Away
No Chance:	Treasure Planet
Nominee I'd Vote For:	Spirited Away
What's Missing:	none
Treasure Planet, a tremendous bomb for Disney, is the only nominee with no chance. The Mouse House has most heavily promoted their summertime hit Lilo & Stitch, while ignoring the clear class act in this category, Spirited Away, which they imported from Japan. DreamWorks, which won this inaugural category last year, could repeat with its promotion of the equine Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron, though that film was nowhere near as well-received as Shrek. That should leave the award for Fox's Ice Age, the biggest hit of the group. [WRONG!]
The Prediction:	Ice Age

And here are my predictions in this year's other categories:

Best Cinematography: Road to Perdition [RIGHT!]	Even though Road to Perdition seems to be flying under the radar in most categories, the recent death of cinematographer Conrad L. Hall will most likely mean a posthumous Oscar here, his third.
Best Original Score: The Hours [WRONG!]	A tough one. The legendary John Williams may very well take it for his change-of-pace work on Catch Me If You Can, but I'm going with the evocative work of Philip Glass for The Hours.
Best Original Song: "The Hands That Built America," Gangs of New York [WRONG!]	Enimem isn't going to be there, and that's not a problem since "Lose Yourself" from 8 Mile doesn't stand a chance given its rap classification. Most likely between "I Move On" from Chicago, and U2's "The Hands That Built America" from Gangs of New York. Peace-loving Bono has the leg up. Here's another anti-war speechmaker.
Best Film Editing: Chicago [RIGHT!]	No real reason this year to stray from the tried-and-true rule that Best Editing usually goes to the Best Picture winner. More razzle dazzle for Chicago.
Best Art Direction: Gangs of New York [WRONG!]	Several worthy competitors here, but Gangs of New York had the biggest scope of these nominees and should score its easiest win of the night in this category.
Best Sound: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers [WRONG!]	Others are singing Chicago's praises here, but I'm guessing Lord of the Rings will finally score as a Best Sound winner this year.
Best Costume Design: Chicago [RIGHT!]	The duds of Chicago will carry the day.
Best Visual Effects: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers [RIGHT!]	No contest. Gollum shall not be denied.
Best Makeup: Frida [RIGHT!]	A joke of a category, thanks to the stupid omissions and disqualifications of films like Lord of the Rings, Adaptation, Chicago, and a score of others. Frida is the much higher-profile film in this duo (The Time Machine was a poorly-reviewed flop), and it will cruise to an easy victory for Miramax.
Best Sound Effects Editing: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers [RIGHT!]	Look for another Lord rerun from last year.
Best Foreign Language Film: Nowhere in Africa [RIGHT!]	This German import seems to have the loudest buzz and is at least tied for having the best reviews of the lot.
Best Documentary Feature: Bowling for Columbine [RIGHT!]	I didn't think the documentary branch would ever nominate renegade Michael Moore, but now that they have, I look for him to not only win, but also to deliver the night's most pointed political acceptance speech.

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Oscar Predictions: 2002 (Top 8: 38%; Overall: 52%) AWFUL!!!