Oscar Predictions: 1999 (Top 8: 88%; Overall: 67%)
With the Oscar race heading into the final stretches, it's time for some final picks and predictions for which films and stars with be taking home Hollywood's most coveted Golden Guys on Sunday, March 23. Competitors in office Oscar pools beware: there are almost always some surprises.
Best Picture
WHAT WILL WIN:
Many Oscar watchers are calling this year's race for Best Picture one of the tightest ever. They're wrong. American Beauty is the easy winner. [RIGHT!]
WHAT SHOULD WIN:
The Academy and I haven't agreed on the year's No. 1 film since Amadeus in 1984, but by George, it's gonna happen again. American Beauty's got this one all but locked up.
Best Director
WHO WILL WIN:
One of this year's easiest calls. No one's gonna topple Broadway transplant Sam Mendes, making him a rare director to win for his first feature film. [RIGHT!]
WHO SHOULD WIN:
And Mendes deserves it, as he craftily led a Beauty parade of unforgettable images and made every one of the film's ethereal moments letter-perfect.
Best Actor
WHO WILL WIN:
Denzel Washington was once a shoo-in, but the steady backlash against The Hurricane's alleged historical inaccuarcies may prevent him from becoming Oscar's only black Best Actor since Poitier. Neither Crowe nor Farnsworth seem to have enough true momentum to upset, but Kevin Spacey's SAG win helps him tremendously. I say Spacey by a nose. [RIGHT!]
WHO SHOULD WIN:
No question: Richard Farnsworth, the oldest Best Actor nominee ever, is a revelation in The Straight Story. This would be one rare time giving it to the Old Guy wouldn't be a mistake (a rarity at Oscar time.)
Best Actress
WHO WILL WIN:
Hilary Swank has won virtually every award available for Boys Don't Cry, so conventional wisdom makes the Oscar hers to lose. She's my pick. The only other lady with a lifeline is Bening, who has an even better chance after winning the SAG award. [RIGHT!]
WHO SHOULD WIN:
As much as I admire Beauty's Bening, I can't imagine anyone viewing all five of these performances and not thinking Swank's was far and away the best.
Best Supporting Actor
WHO WILL WIN:
It's Tom vs. Haley here, though Caine is coming on strong. Some feel that three-time nominee Cruise will win for playing against type in Magnolia, plus some feel he's owed. But I'm thinking that 11-year-old Osment created more of a stir in The Sixth Sense, a far more popular film than Magnolia. Or Cider may sneak in and give Caine his second. [WRONG!]
WHO SHOULD WIN:
Anyone but Cruise! He deserved an Oscar for Jerry Maguire, sure, but Cruise's work in Magnolia is nothing more than satisfactory. John Malkovich would have been my choice for Being John Malkovich, but right behind him for me is Osment.
Best Supporting Actress
WHO WILL WIN:
The movie flopped and it's really not that great a performance, but Angelina Jolie is the It Girl in Hollywood these days. Having an Oscar winner for a dad (Jon Voight) doesn't hurt. If there's an upset, I'm saying it'll be Sixth Sense's Collette, and no one else is saying that, but still, Jolie will win. [RIGHT!]
WHO SHOULD WIN:
With arguably the most difficult role in Boys Don't Cry, Chloe Sevigny brought forth a myriad of emotions with a quiet, glassy-eyed stare. She deserves it, but has very little chance of winning.
Best Original Screenplay
WHAT WILL WIN:
Certainly a two-horse race between American Beauty and Being John Malkovich. Beauty's won the Golden Globe and the WGA and appears to have the upper hand. [RIGHT!]
WHAT SHOULD WIN:
Alan Ball (formerly of TV's Cybill) created a screenplay of wit and poetry with American Beauty.
Best Screenplay Adaptation
WHAT WILL WIN:
One of the tighest races of the night. My guess? Since they're likely to deny Cider House the Best Picture Oscar, John Irving gets to claim the consolation prize. [RIGHT!]
WHAT SHOULD WIN:
All five are good scripts, but Writers Guild winner Election was subversively brilliant. With Reese Witherspoon unfortunately passed over for Best Actress, a win here would be one of the most deserving elections of the night.
And here are my predictions in the technical categories:
Best Cinematography: Veteran cinematographer (and past winner) Conrad L. Hall is all but guaranteed another Oscar for American Beauty.
[RIGHT!]
Best Original Score: John Williams became the most nominated living person this year with his nomination for Angela's Ashes, but the more likely winner is American Beauty's Thomas Newman, whose striking instrumentals were widely acclaimed.
[WRONG!]
Best Original Song: There'd be a conservative riot if the profanity-laced "Blame Canada" won for South Park. Look for Phil Collins to collect his first Oscar for "You'll Be in My Heart" from Tarzan, over the more deserving "Save Me" from Magnolia.
[RIGHT!]
Best Film Editing: The Best Picture winner usually takes Best Editing, though American Beauty's actually not the safest bet. I'm going with the action-packed Editors Guild winner The Matrix.
[RIGHT!]
Best Art Direction: Though I wouldn't count out the period stagings of Topsy-Turvy, I'm expecting a win for Tim Burton's Sleepy Hollow, along the lines of his Batman, which won this category in 1989.
[RIGHT!]
Best Sound: This category, along with Visual Effects and Sound Effects Editing, will test the voters' smarts in comparing the more deserving technical maneuverings of The Matrix to the more mainstream (and more widely seen) offerings of Star Wars: Episode I--The Phantom Menace. Knowing the Academy, I'm predicting a victory for The Force.
[WRONG!]
Best Costume Design: In the category Star Wars ought to win, it's not even nominated. Instead look for Topsy-Turvy to topple Sleepy Hollow.
[RIGHT!]
Best Visual Effects: Ugh. Score another win for Jar Jar Binks and Star Wars. A Matrix upset would be welcome.
[WRONG!]
Best Makeup: In a category with one more nominee than usual, I'm betting on Topsy-Turvy to triumph over the popcorn fare of Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me, Bicentennial Man and Life.
[RIGHT!]
Best Sound Effects Editing: Star Wars again is likely to edge past The Matrix.
[WRONG!]
Best Foreign Language Film: Spain's Pedro Almodovar has this one locked up for All About My Mother.
[RIGHT!]
Best Documentary Feature: Wim Wenders will add directorial visibility with his Buena Vista Social Club. [WRONG!]
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