Oscar Predictions: 1998 (Top 8: 50%; Overall: 62%)
Who will win this year's Oscars? Or more importantly, who should ?
Best Picture
The nominees are: "Elizabeth," "Life is Beautiful," "Saving Private Ryan," "Shakespeare in Love" and "The Thin Red Line."
What will win: Some Oscar pundits are adhering to the old standby rule that the most nominated film usually wins Best Picture, and I'll even admit that "Shakespeare in Love," with its 13 nods, has dark horse potential. But I pretty much doubt that such a fun, breezy film will be able to topple the perceived importance and gravity of Steven Spielberg's "Saving Private Ryan," whose only true debit is its July release date. It's my pick. [WRONG!]
What should win: For all of "Private's" power, the best World War II movie nominated isn't it or "The Thin Red Line." Roberto Benigni's "Life is Beautiful" is actually the most impressive nominee of the lot, with its daring to find its serio-comic tone among the Holocaust and its emotional effectiveness. With "The Truman Show" ridiculously not nominated, I'd vote for "Life" in a heartbeat.
Best Director
The nominees are: Roberto Benigni for "Life is Beautiful," Steven Spielberg for "Saving Private Ryan," John Madden for "Shakespeare in Love," Terrence Malick for "The Thin Red Line" and Peter Weir for "The Truman Show."
Who will win: We may not be able to complain about The Academy hating Steven Spielberg anymore, since he's pretty much a shoo-in to win his third Academy Award here (his second in this category; he'll get a fourth if "Saving" nabs Best Picture. [RIGHT!]
Who should win: Spielberg would be an admirable choice, but Peter Weir's directorial steady hand was never shaken during "The Truman Show," a technical marvel that only a few contemporary filmmakers could have brought off so flawlessly.
Best Actor
The nominees are: Roberto Benigni in "Life is Beautiful," Tom Hanks in "Saving Private Ryan," Ian McKellen in "Gods and Monsters," Nick Nolte in "Affliction" and Edward Norton in "American History X."
Who will win: A very hard race to call, since each of the five nominees has legitimate factors working against him. No man has ever won Best Actor for a foreign language role, so Benigni suffers there. Cinderella nominee Edward Norton is deserving, but "American History X" is far too volatile a film to be embraced by a majority of voters. Academy favorite Tom Hanks has the one performance that all the voters will have seen, but will they really give him a third Best Actor Oscar in six years? Voters may want to apologize to Nick Nolte for his 1991 "Prince of Tides" loss, but "Affliction" hasn't been widely seen, and the film is a downer. That leaves Ian McKellen, who could capitalize on Oscar's love of British thespians and the fact that he's the elder statesman of the group. "Gods and Monsters" didn't make the cut for Best Picture or Director, though, so will enough voters have seen the film? It's the hardest acting race to call, but I'll go with McKellen over Nolte and Hanks. [WRONG!]
Who should win: I hope my prediction is right, as McKellen hits all the right notes as "Frankenstein" director James Whale, in a thoughtful, moving performance. (And, without a doubt, Jim Carrey should have been on this list.)
Best Actress
The nominees are: Cate Blanchett in "Elizabeth," Fernanda Montenegro in "Central Station," Gywneth Paltrow in "Shakespeare in Love," Meryl Streep in One True Thing" and Emily Watson in "Hilary and Jackie."
Who will win: This is a two-horse race between the stars of the Elizabethan pictures. "Elizabeth's" Cate Blanchett has a meatier role than "Shakespeare in Love's" Gywneth Paltrow, but Paltrow is a Hollywood star while Blanchett is still basically only known in the art houses. Two more things help Paltrow: her famous Hollywood family ties (her mom is Blythe Danner), and the fact that the Academy will probably want to give the heavily-nominated "Shakespeare" several top awards without having to give it Best Picture. [RIGHT!]
Who should win: The only actress ever to win this award for a foreign language performance was Sophia Loren for 1961's "Two Women," but if there were any justice it would happen again this year. Fernanda Montenegro, so heartbreaking and emotionally fluid in "Central Station" (also up for Best Foreign Language Film), is the clear winner among this bunch.
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees are: James Coburn in "Affliction," Robert Duvall in "A Civil Action," Ed Harris in "The Truman Show," Geoffrey Rush in "Shakespeare in Love" and Billy Bob Thornton in "A Simple Plan."
Who will win: Just like their Best Actor counterparts, this year's Best Supporting Actor nominees also each suffer substantial roadblocks to a victory. Robert Duvall isn't really considered a serious contender since his role was a pretty forgettable part of a pretty forgettable movie ("A Civil Action"), though he may score a few consolation points for losing last year for "The Apostle." Geoffrey Rush's role in "Shakespeare in Love" is entertaining but quite small, and he likely only got nominated because of the bandwagon effect. He's also won very recently (1996's Best Actor for "Shine"). James Coburn nabbed his first-ever nomination for "Affliction," but I'm not sure hes revered enough to follow any sort of sentimental rush to a win. Billy Bob Thornton, another 1996 winner (for his "Sling Blade" screenplay), has critical support for "A Simple Plan," but Paramount's bungled distribution of the film may have limited its mass viewership (witness it only has two nominations). That leaves Ed Harris for "The Truman Show." That film was expected to net anywhere from seven to 11 nominations, but only pulled three. The Academy clearly doesn't support the film, but they do love the overdue Harris. He's my pick to win, if the voters are feeling apologetic at all. [WRONG!]
Who should win: I would have liked to have seen "Saving Private Ryan's" Jeremy Davies here, though I still would have voted for Harris, who was slickly compelling as the controlling and manipulative creator of "The Truman Show."
Best Supporting Actress
The nominees are: Kathy Bates in "Primary Colors," Brenda Blethyn in "Little Voice," Judi Dench in "Shakespeare in Love," Rachel Griffiths in "Hilary and Jackie" and Lynn Redgrave in "Gods and Monsters."
Who will win: This race is most likely between Judi Dench and Lynn Redgrave, both on their second nominations and firsts in this category. Dench is in the more-widely seen picture, and many people (including me) felt she was robbed last year for "Mrs. Brown." She could get some comeuppance with a win, but that would also make her mere six minutes of screen time the shortest Oscar-winning performance in movie history. Redgrave won the Golden Globe for her performance in a mild upset, and her role is more substantial to the entire film than Dench's. But I'm not sure voters are going to give two acting prizes to the itsy-bitsy "Gods and Monsters." I'm begrudgingly going with Dench. [RIGHT!]
Who should win: No question: the few moviegoers who actually saw "Primary Colors" last March quickly made Kathy Bates the years first Oscar hopeful. Hilarious and heartbreaking, there's no doubt that she should win her second Oscar here. (She won Best Actress in 1990 for "Misery.") The only way she could pull an upset, though, is through the often-true notion that the only American in a field of foreigners wins.
Best Original Screenplay
The nominees are: "Bulworth," "Life is Beautiful," "Saving Private Ryan," "Shakespeare in Love" and "The Truman Show."
What will win: Most prognosticators are expecting "Shakespeare in Love" to win here, and they're absolutely right. [RIGHT!]
What should win: Andrew Niccol's brilliant "The Truman Show" set new standards for modern movie creativity in these retread-ready times.
Best Screenplay Adaptation
The nominees are: "Gods and Monsters," "Out of Sight," "Primary Colors," "A Simple Plan" and "The Thin Red Line."
What will win: If "The Thin Red Line" wins, it certainly wont be because of the Academy's respect for its weak script. Rather, it would be a win based solely on the opportunity to reward the revered Malick for his body of work. Having said that, I'm betting on the dark horse Writers Guild winner, "Out of Sight," which would make a deserving winner of adapter Scott Frank, who kept Elmore Leonard's snappy dialogue in tact. [WRONG!]
What should win: Ill be happy with a win for any of the scripts other than "The Thin Red Line," as all are worthy. But my vote would go to Bill Condons bold but never overbearing words from "Gods and Monsters."
Here are my predictions in the technical categories:
Best Cinematography: In a breakneck battle between the WWII pictures, look for "The Thin Red Line" to edge "Saving Private Ryan." [WRONG!]
Best Original Dramatic Score: "Saving Private Ryan," already a Grammy winner, should net an umpteenth trophy for composer John Williams. [WRONG!]
Best Original Musical or Comedy Score: Animated flicks usually win here, but the trio of "A Bug's Life," "Mulan" and "The Prince of Egypt" are likely to split votes, tossing the trophy to "Shakespeare in Love." [RIGHT!]
Best Original Song: "When You Believe" from "The Prince of Egypt" will help add glamour to the telecast by featuring songstresses Mariah Carey and Whitney Houston, so look for it to beat out Aerosmith's "I Don't Wanna Miss a Thing" from "Armageddon." [RIGHT!]
Best Film Editing: "Saving Private Ryan's" judicious editing will carry the day, particularly when compared to the also-nominated "The Thin Red Line," which feels like it didn't even have an editor. [RIGHT!]
Best Art Direction: Period pictures almost always win this award, so "Elizabeth" and "Shakespeare in Love" will again duke it out. "Elizabeth's" more elaborate production design may give it an edge, but--call me crazy--I'm predicting long shot "When Dreams May Come." [WRONG!]
Best Sound: "Saving Private Ryan" in a no-brainer. [RIGHT!]
Best Costume Design: Another battle between "Shakespeare in Love" and "Elizabeth," but this time, I'd bet on "Shakespeare in Love." [RIGHT!]
Best Visual Effects: Even those moviegoers who hated "What Dreams May Come" (myself included) acknowledged its cutting edge effects. [RIGHT!]
Best Makeup: The similar "Elizabeth" and "Shakespeare in Love" will cancel one another out, tossing the trophy to the gore of "Saving Private Ryan." [WRONG!]
Best Sound Effects Editing: "Saving Private Ryan" wins again. [RIGHT!]
Best Foreign Language Film: In any other year, critical darling "Central Station" would be unstoppable. Any other year except this one, that is, when Best Picture nominee "Life is Beautiful" is a shoo-in. [RIGHT!]
Best Documentary Feature: One of the sturdiest Academy traditions is that Holocaust documentaries always win, so "The Last Days" has it locked up. [RIGHT!]
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