Oscar Predictions: 1997 (Top 8: 63%; Overall: 76%)
When Oscar speaks for the 70th time on Monday, March 23, most eyes will be on "Titanic," as movie fans look to see if the biggest hit -- and most expensive -- movie of all time can dodge the four other icebergs in the icy Best Picture waters. As well, none of the acting categories, unlike most years, features a shoo-in winner. Instead, the four categories all feature two-person races that are going to be very close to call. Still, to help you enter those office pools safely, here's a look at those films and performers who will be striking gold on Magic Monday, as well as those who ought to be. (And, yes, I'm predicting 12 wins for "Titanic," which, yes, does break the all-time record.)
Best Picture
The nominees are: "As Good as It Gets," "The Full Monty," "Good Will Hunting," "L.A. Confidential" and "Titanic."
What will win: There are reasons, based on history, that "Titanic" shouldn't win. The Academy rarely favors movies with huge budgets or huge profits, and the voters snubbed the film in two big categories: Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay. Still, none of the other nominees appears to have enough momentum to sink The Big Ship, which, after all, is an awfully good movie. [RIGHT!]
What should win: For my money, "The Full Monty," now the biggest hit in British box office history, generated more of a spark than any other film in 1997. Unfortunately, it hasn't got a prayer of winning. (Attention penny pinchers: with the amount of money it took to make "Titanic" once, you could make "The Full Monty" 80 times.)
Best Director
The nominees are: Peter Cattaneo for "The Full Monty," Gus Van Sant for "Good Will Hunting," Curtis Hanson for "L.A. Confidential," Atom Egoyan for "The Sweet Hereafter" and James Cameron for "Titanic."
Who will win: Cameron, fresh from winning the Directors Guild award, benefits from the fact that only four times in the Guild's history has its winner not gone on to win the directing Oscar. [RIGHT!]
Who should win: It took a master to bring an epic of "Titanic" proportions to the screen, and Cameron deserves the trophy for so seamlessly moving from drama to action in the same film.
Best Actor
The nominees are: Matt Damon in "Good Will Hunting," Robert Duvall in "The Apostle," Peter Fonda in "Ulee's Gold," Dustin Hoffman in "Wag the Dog" and Jack Nicholson in "As Good as It Gets."
Who will win: It's a neck-and-neck race between Fonda and Nicholson (both nominees three decades ago for "Easy Rider"). Fonda benefits from sentiment, as many proponents of "Ulee's Gold" have compared him to his late father Henry, and he could become the third Fonda to take home the gold. Nicholson, who became the most nominated male actor in film history with this nomination, is a legend whose performance has been most more widely seen among voters. However, Nicholson's already won two Oscars, to Fonda's zero. To me at least, that gives Fonda a bit of an edge. [WRONG!]
Who should win: The few people who have seen "Ulee's Gold" can attest to the quiet power of Fonda's wonderfully modulated work as a Florida beekeeper going through hell for his family. It's an unforgettable performance.
Best Actress
The nominees are: Helena Bonham Carter in "The Wings of the Dove," Julie Christie in "Afterglow," Judi Dench in "Mrs. Brown," Helen Hunt in "As Good as It Gets" and Kate Winslet in "Titanic."
Who will win: An Oscar win would certainly help ease Helen Hunt's transition from television to film, and wins at the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild Awards certainly speak volumes. She's also the only American nominated here, and Oscar traditionally likes the hometown girl. Expect her to win, but don't count out Judi Dench's work as the grief-stricken Queen Victoria in "Mrs. Brown" -- perhaps the best-reviewed of all 20 performances nominated this year. [RIGHT!]
Who should win: Kate Winslet, the one nominee from "Titanic" certain not to win, adroitly added another classic action heroine to James Cameron's canon, following "Aliens'" Sigourney Weaver and "Terminator 2's" Linda Hamilton.
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees are: Robert Forster in "Jackie Brown," Anthony Hopkins in "Amistad," Greg Kinnear in "As Good as It Gets," Burt Reynolds in "Boogie Nights" and Robin Williams in "Good Will Hunting."
Who will win: In this Year of the Comeback, Reynolds boogies to a sentimental victory over Williams, who is admittedly right on his heels. [WRONG!]
Who should win: Robin Williams was almost as humbling in "Good Will Hunting" as he was in 1990's "Awakenings," for which he wasn't even nominated. A win here would rectify that oversight as well as reward a great performance. (I must admit, though, that while my head says Robin, my heart's pulling for Burt.)
Best Supporting Actress
The nominees are: Kim Basinger in "L.A. Confidential," Joan Cusack in "In & Out," Minnie Driver in "Good Will Hunting," Julianne Moore in "Boogie Nights" and Gloria Stuart in "Titanic."
Who will win: In the closest of all the acting races, "L.A. Confidential's" Kim Basinger clawed her way past a career's worth of bad reviews to deliver a ferocious performance. She's armed with a Golden Globe and newfound respect, but she may have difficulty overcoming the groundswell of support for "Titanic's" Gloria Stuart, who hasn't been active in the movies since the 1930s. The Academy traditionally goes for rewarding aging talent while they're still with us, regardless of whether said person deserves the award. (Stuart doesn't.) [WRONG!]
Who should win: People keep pointing out that the Academy snubbed living legend Lauren Bacall last year for the more worthy Juliette Binoche. I can only hope they'll use the same discretion again and duly honor Basinger. And if not her, why not the hilarious antics of Cusack in "In & Out?"
Best Original Screenplay
The nominees are: "As Good as It Gets," "Boogie Nights," "Deconstructing Harry," "The Full Monty" and "Good Will Hunting."
What will win: Doses of star power always prevail in the writing categories, making Matt Damon and Ben Affleck invincible for their script for "Good Will Hunting." [RIGHT!]
What should win: Simon Beaufoy's fine script for "The Full Monty" could have gone for sight gags alone. Instead, it went straight for the heart, making an endearing human comedy to which anyone -- stripper or otherwise -- could relate.
Best Screenplay Adaptation
The nominees are: "Donnie Brasco," "L.A. Confidential," "The Sweet Hereafter," "Wag the Dog" and "The Wings of the Dove."
What will win: The Academy will surely bestow the adapted screenplay award to Curtis Hanson and Brian Helgeland for "L.A. Confidential" as a consolation prize. Should Basinger indeed lose, this would be "L.A.'s" only win. [RIGHT!]
What should win: Atom Egoyan's adaptation of "The Sweet Hereafter" made for the most chilling film experience of the year.
And in those usually-harder-to-call technical categories, here are the most likely films to grab some gold.
Best Cinematography: The sweep mentality pushes Russell Carpenter's lensing of "Titanic" past the more deserving Dante Spinotti's work on "L.A. Confidential." [RIGHT!]
Best Original Dramatic Score: James Horner's "Titanic" score, already the main element of the biggest-selling soundtrack album of all time, easily carries the day. [RIGHT!]
Best Original Musical or Comedy Score: Voters may look to this category as consolation for "The Full Monty," which won't win anything else, or, more likely, go for something animated like they often do. That's "Anastasia." [WRONG!]
Best Original Song: Those betting against Celine Dion's rousing No. 1 hit, "My Heart Will Go On" from "Titanic" are probably on some mind-altering medication. [RIGHT!]
Best Film Editing: Maverick filmmaker James Cameron, who will win for directing and producing "Titanic," will win his third statuette for co-editing the mammoth film with Conrad Buff IV and Richard A. Harris. [RIGHT!]
Best Art Direction: It's not everyday you see the biggest ship of them all so astutely re-created onscreen, and Peter Lamont's work will prove one of "Titanic's" most worthy winners. [RIGHT!]
Best Sound: The last hour of "Titanic" was the kind of experience for which surround sound was made. [RIGHT!]
Best Costume Design: Deborah L. Scott's designs for "Titanic" were tasteful, grand-scale and -- more important than anything -- widely seen. [RIGHT!]
Best Visual Effects: Sensing a pattern? Even if the unthinkable happened and the Academy completely turned its back on "Titanic," it would still most likely win this award, one of its easiest wins. [RIGHT!]
Best Makeup: The one technical category that "Titanic" will probably lose. The Academy historically prefers showier makeup, just like that featured in the summer megahit "Men in Black." [RIGHT!]
Best Sound Effects Editing: There's little here to sink "Titanic." [RIGHT!]
Best Foreign Language Film: A tough call in a year without a single nominee generating much buzz. Germany has won this award more than the other countries, though, so my money's on "Beyond Silence." [WRONG!]
Best Documentary Feature: The only thing more rare than Spike Lee being nominated for an Oscar is actually winning one, so don't look for the controversial director's "4 Little Girls" to prevail. The more likely choice? The post-Holocaust study, "The Long Way Home." [RIGHT!]
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